Posted 03/23/2014 by McKinley Noble in UFC

UFC Fight Night 38 Long Odds: The $1 Bet That Can Win $1300

It’s slim pickings this week for UFC bets.

As usual, the world’s largest MMA promotion is bringing a ton of their lesser-known fighters to fill out a card in Brazil, with some obvious squash matches set up.

However, the main event is pretty solid.

In a rematch of 2011′s Fight of Year, former PRIDE and Strikeforce title-holder Dan Henderson is facing Mauricio “Shogun” Rua, with Shogun holding the home country court advantage this time around. Just from a betting perspective, the match is an interesting question of Shogun’s brittle knees vs. Henderson’s brittle everything else. But while Shogun’s at least looked like himself in some of his most recent fights, Hendo has just sort of shuffled around the Octagon looking as old as ever.

But even if that’s the only major fight on the card, there’s still some money to be made tonight.

Here’s my usual $1 UFC parlay bet at Bovada, this time taking up the entire card:

UFC Fight Night 38 Bets

In total, that’s a bet on only four favorites and seven underdogs, with a lot of the fights just as close as the sportsbooks make them out.

Let’s run down the line:

Shogun Rua — As pointed out before, Rua’s looking a lot better than Henderson in his recent fights, mostly due to the fact that he’s over 10 years younger. Consider how both of them have performed in their last few fights (and how their brutal first meeting eventually turned out), Rua’s probably going to be the better man this time out. It also doesn’t hurt that he’s likely determined to not lose in Brazil.

C.B. Dollaway — Most fans are sleeping on Dollaway here, despite the fact that he’s developed into a pretty decent kickboxer. Complemented with his wrestling edge, Dollaway’s got a recipe to upset Cezar Ferreira as long as he doesn’t get clipped by a KO shot. Since Dollaway’s also been able to decision submission monster Daniel Sarafian and nearly beat a middleweight hulk in Tim Boetsch, I’m not too worried about him here.

Leonardo Santos — Sure, Santos doesn’t have the strongest record, but his multiple wins outside Brazil show that he’s pretty well-seasoned. Norman Parke is a tall order for Santos, but it’s not unthinkable that the U.K. standout and Ultimate Fighter: Smashes veteran won’t get submitted in a grappling scramble. In fact, that’s the most probable way Parke can lose.

Fabio Maldonado — It’s kind of impressive that Fabio’s on a winning streak, but in retrospect, it’s hard to blame him for losing to stiff competition like Glover Teixeira and Kyle Kingsbury. Gian Villante isn’t much better despite his cleaner record, though. If he can get knocked out by Chad Griggs of all people, Maldonado can probably stifle Villante at range with some volume boxing.

Mairbek Taisumov — Taisumov has a solid-enough striking game to give Michel Prazeres trouble. Takedowns will be key here, and I don’t see the Russian getting submitted inside three rounds unless he gets dropped. Prazeres would most likely gas out first, anyway.

Steven Siler — Siler’s had some tough losses against bad style matchups in Dennis Bermudez and Darren Elkins, but he’s put away some killers in Mike Brown and Joey Gambino. However, he’s just more consistent than Rony Jason. Don’t be shocked if Siler gets a flash KO somewhere in the pocket.

Ronny Markes — Hah. This’ll be a near-murder. Next.

Jussier Da Silva — Scott Jorgensen has a huge wrestling advantage here, but I’m betting that Da Silva snatches a submission while’s he working from guard. This is the second-riskiest one of the bunch. Jorgensen’s KO power would be a surprise here, but it’s more likely he tries to grind Da Silva down for 15 minutes.

Kenny Robertson, Hans Stringer, Noad Lahat — Robertson is giving up a lot in size against Thiago Perpetuo, but neither fighter has a stone chin. Hans Stringer’s got better a takedown game than his opponent, who isn’t all that great. Noad Lahat is one of the biggest favorites on the card, and that’s because Godofredo Pepey is kind of awful on the UFC level.


McKinley Noble is an MMA conspiracy theorist. His work has appeared in NVisionBleacher Report, PC World, Macworld, GamePro, 1UP, MMA Mania and The L.A. Times. Follow him at @KenTheGreat1 on Twitter.

McKinley Noble