Posted 04/26/2014 by McKinley Noble in UFC
 
 

UFC 172 Long Odds: The $1 Bet That Can Win $1,000

Once again, it’s slim pickings on the betting line for a UFC pay-per-view, but there’s still cash to be made.

Looking up and down the card, there’s a bunch of super-competitive match-ups that could go either way in a hurry. But as a result, most of them are risky enough that the odds aren’t that far apart. And with UFC 172 in particular, you’re pretty much guaranteed to lose most of the juicier wagers you can put on the underdogs.

But that’s why we like parlays—minimum risk, super high reward.

Even the smallest bets can (occasionally) still yield some big results, so trail along with our recommended $1 Bovada play on tonight’s action:

UFC 172 Bets

 

Unfortunately, the 11-fight card is now a 10-bout affair thanks to the usual spat of injuries and bad luck. Alas, poor Vagner Rocha.  That cuts down the possible profits, but more than half of the remaining slots are safe enough.

At least, they should be.

Let’s parse through the picks, with four favorites and six underdogs: Jon Jones, Anthony Johnson, Luke Rockhold, Yancy Medeiros, Max Holloway, Joseph Benavidez, Isaac Vallie-Flagg, Jessamyn Duke, Charlie Brenneman, and Patrick Williams.

Jon Jones — Glover Teixeira has almost no chance to win here. If Jones doesn’t kick his knees apart, Glover’s getting taken down and choked out. Easy call.

Anthony Johnson — Johnson’s best bet is to hurt Phil Davis early. He’s fast enough to close the distance and swarm him, and his boxing is crisp. Davis isn’t bringing any KO power here.

Luke Rockhold — Rockhold is better than Tim Boetsch at everything.

Yancy Medeiros — This one’s interesting due to the short notice fight arrangement. Miller was originally going to fight Bobby Green, and now he faces a completely different problem in Medeiros. Solid takedown defense is key here, and Medeiros can clip Miller if the fight stays standing.

Max Holloway — Andre Fili has the range and versatility to win, but Holloway’s faster and brings a better boxing game to the table.

Joseph Benavidez — Tim Elliot will be lucky to make it three rounds.

Isaac Vallie-Flagg — All things considered, Takanori Gomi’s looked somewhat decent in the UFC so far. He’s competitive enough against big names and beats the lower-tier fighters when he needs to do so. But Vallie-Flagg has a knack for winning split decisions, and he’s a Greg Jackson fighter to boot.

Jessamyn Duke — This is a huge step up in competition for Duke, but she’s got a ton of size on Bethe Correia. That’s really going to help in the clinch, so Duke should be able to stay off the cage and the mat. Striking at a distance, Duke’s also mean enough and sharp enough that she can beat Correia by points or stoppage.

Charlie Brenneman — Brenneman is possibly one of the most underrated fighters in the UFC right now. Even ignoring his last loss (a replacement fight on a week’s notice), this is a guy who once beat Rick Story and temporarily out-wrestled Johny Hendricks. If he can avoid doing something stupid against Danny Castillo, it’s possible for Brenneman to grind out a win.

Patrick Williams — Everyone’s picking Chris Beal due to his perfect record, but Williams is the better wrestler who’s fought tougher regional fighters.

 

McKinley Noble is an MMA conspiracy theorist. His work has appeared in NVisionBleacher Report, PC World, Macworld, GamePro, 1UP, MMA Mania and The L.A. Times. Follow him at @KenTheGreat1 on Twitter.


McKinley Noble