Posted 05/10/2014 by McKinley Noble in UFC

UFC Fight Night 40 Long Odds: The $1 Bet That Can Win $1,600

Although the casual UFC fan might not find much to like about this Saturday’s fight card, it’s really a fantastic event for making money.

Not only is UFC Fight Night 40 filled to the brim with 13 fights—unlike the relatively shallow UFC 172—but up and down the card, you’ve got more than a few bouts where the underdog has a good shot of winning.

As usual, we’re putting up $1 on Bovada to predict most of the card, and this time, the payout’s a tidy $1,600 if it cashes.

UFC FN 40 Bets

Although there’s 13 fights on the card, Bovada only allows 12, which is just fine with us this time around. Eddie Wineland—one of the Top 5 bantamweights in the UFC—sits at more than a -600 favorite on the books, so you don’t gain much value from having him in a parlay. Johnny Eduardo might beat him, but we doubt it.

So without further ado, let’s break down the remaining bouts.

Tonight, we’re picking four underdogs and eight favorites in total: Matt Brown, Lorenz Larkin, Daron Cruickshank, Tim Means, Soa Palelei, Louis Smolka, Ed Herman, Kyoji Horiguchi, Zak Cummings, Nik Lentz, Justin Salas, and Albert Tumenov.

Matt Brown — It’s really kind of crazy that Brown’s not the favorite against Erick Silva. Sure, Brown’s a slow starter, but he’s more well-rounded and has a 6-0 winning streak against vastly superior competition. Brown’s smart enough to overcome the bad style match-up here and wear out Silva within two rounds.

Lorenz Larkin — Costas Philippou will likely have nothing to offer Larkin in a stand-up battle. Larkin’s faster, more diverse, and younger. This should be the UFC fight where he puts it all together.

Daron Cruickshank — Lots of people think Erik Koch is the smart pick here, and they might be right, but Cruickshank can out-muscle, out-clinch, and outstrike Koch while surviving on some volume striking alone.

Tim Means — This is almost a squash match. Means is faster than Neil Magny, way more aggressive, and hits a lot harder. Heck, you might want to do a $10 KO/TKO prop bet for Means while you’re at it.

Soa Palelei — Palelei’s probably going to demolish Ruan Potts. He’s just better at everything. Moving on.

Louis Smolka — Flyweight is full of amazing prospects, and Smolka might be one of the hottest things going in the division right now. Chris Cariaso is a stiff veteran test for the former PXC champion, but Smolka’s got the skill set for a solid win. Smolka’s also huge for the division, which aids his potent striking and grappling.

Ed Herman — Herman doesn’t have the winning record that Rafael Natal’s put together recently, so we’re most wary of this pick. However, Herman’s also been fighting much better competition along the way while Natal’s been feeding off TUF fighters and overmatched regional graduates. Herman’s risky, but not a bad pick to win a decision.

Kyoji Horiguchi — California native Darrell Montague’s tough, but doesn’t have the chops to beat a sledgehammer knockout artist like Horiguchi.

Zak Cummings — Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu fans are getting a treat with this match. Cummings is a big former-middleweight with solid wrestling chops on the mat, and he’s got just enough size to smother Yan Cabral to a decision. That’ll be no easy feat against an undefeated Nova Uniao talent, but it’ll be fun to watch.

Nik Lentz — Manny Gamburyan’s not anywhere close to past his prime, but he’s also nowhere close to Lentz’s level in grappling department.

Justin Salas — Ben Wall is probably looking at a pink slip if he loses, and Salas has been performing far better against tougher competition.

Albert Tumenov — Tumenov’s UFC debut was somewhat disappointing, but he still deserves credit for going the distance against a crafty veteran in Ildemar Alcantara. Losing to a far older, less threatening fighter in Anthony Lapsley spells trouble. That’s probably not going to happen, and he’ll more than likely avoid getting submitted against Lapsley.


McKinley Noble is an MMA conspiracy theorist. His work has appeared in NVisionBleacher Report, PC World, Macworld, GamePro, 1UP, MMA Mania and The L.A. Times. Follow him at @KenTheGreat1 on Twitter.

McKinley Noble